Welcome to The Market Runup! Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro developments — so you can get smarter on your Sundays and prepare for the week ahead.
New here? Subscribe to get updates straight to your inbox.
Markets At a Glance
Macro shock from Iran war: Markets were heavily impacted this week as the escalating Iran conflict triggered a global energy shock, pushing oil prices toward ~$110–$120 per barrel and heightening inflation concerns.
Oil drives market volatility: Attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz fueled fears of prolonged supply shortages, sparking volatility across equities, foreign exchange and crypto markets.
Bitcoin holds relative strength: Despite macro pressure, Bitcoin remained relatively stable in the mid-$60K range, showing resilience compared to traditional assets.
ETF flows remain inconsistent: Institutional demand continued to vary, with inflows and outflows shifting alongside macro headlines.
Market structure continues consolidating: Crypto markets continue to trade within a strict range, showing lower leverage and increased sensitivity to macro signals.
Global impact on crypto:
Energy shock drives inflation fears: Oil price spikes tied to the Iran conflict are expected to feed into inflation data in the coming months, which could delay interest rate cuts and tighten financial conditions.
Central banks in wait-and-see mode: The U.S. Fed, the European Central Bank, and other central banks are holding interest rates steady while they assess the long-term impact of the ongoing energy shock, reinforcing a cautious liquidity environment.
Global risk sentiment weakens: Rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty have led to weaker currencies, equity drawdowns, and increased volatility across global markets.
This Week’s on The Market Runup
Episode 5: Anthony Scaramucci weighs in on the Iran war, oil prices and Bitcoin’s role in a macro-driven market
This week on The Market Runup, I sat down with investor and entrepreneur Anthony Scaramucci to break down how the Iran war is impacting global markets — from oil price shocks and inflation expectations to shifting investor behavior. We discussed how rising energy prices are feeding into macro uncertainty, why markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and how institutional capital is navigating this environment.
Scaramucci also weighed in on Bitcoin’s role during global instability, including whether it is beginning to behave as a macro asset or a potential hedge. The conversation explored how liquidity conditions, central bank policy, and risk sentiment are shaping crypto’s current structure, and what investors should be watching next.
Noteworthy Market Stats
Total crypto market cap: ~$2.43T (range-bound consolidation)
Top 3 Assets:
Bitcoin (BTC) — $1.38T at ~$68,783
Ethereum (ETH) — $251B at ~$2,085
Solana (SOL) — $50B at ~$88
Bitcoin dominance vs altcoins: About 57% to 58% skewing towards BTC as capital leaves altcoins.
Stablecoin market cap: About $297B, as capital remains on the sidelines.
Bitcoin ETF net flows: Mixed as recent inflows are followed by $100M+ outflow days, signaling inconsistent institutional demand.
The percentages and metrics are based on a 7-day timeframe, unless noted otherwise.
What Else Caught Our Eye
The Iran war has turned crypto into a macro-sensitive asset that’s being driven by oil prices and global liquidity conditions.
The Market Runup’s Take:
This week reinforced the fact that crypto is no longer trading in isolation. Oil shocks, inflation expectations, and central banks’ positioning are directly impacting Bitcoin and altcoins. The market is not weak, but it is reacting to a global liquidity shift driven by geopolitical risk and energy-driven inflation.
Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch):
Liquidations and reduced leverage suggest traders are becoming more cautious, and rapidly adjusting their positions to macro headlines rather than long-term conviction trades.
Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you):
Bitcoin continues to move alongside global risk assets, confirming that macro liquidity — not crypto narratives — is currently driving prices.
What’s The Risk Appetite
Investors remain selective rather than fully risk-on, as they prioritize capital preservation and higher-conviction assets like Bitcoin instead of aggressively chasing speculative altcoins. This reflects a market that is still engaged but increasingly cautious due to macro uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
Markets have become significantly more sensitive to macro developments, particularly oil prices, inflation expectations and institutional flows, meaning even small shifts in these variables may trigger outsized volatility.
At the same time, speculative behavior has cooled compared to earlier phases. Altcoin momentum has declined, and investors are being more disciplined with capital allocation — a clear sign of a market consolidating rather than expanding.
Learn More
We liked what they wrote, so we thought you would, too.
To get this newsletter delivered to your inbox, subscribe here.
This product was built by Token Relations.
This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.