Welcome to the first edition of The Market Runup. The newest premium finance podcast powered by Token Relations and hosted by Erin Gambrel, AKA the Blonde Broker.
Every week, we’re diving into what happened in the crypto market onchain and off-chain, as well macro and general market developments — so you can get smarter on your Sundays and prepare for the week ahead.
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Quick Market Updates
Fed leadership drama = risk-off fuel: Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, plus the ongoing DOJ probe into Jerome Powell kept “Fed independence” in the headlines. The markets priced the uncertainty like they would liquidity risk.
‘Higher-for-longer’ anxiety returns: The January jobs report beat expectations (while revisions cut prior job counts), reinforcing the idea that the Fed has reason to stay restrictive.
CPI setup tightened positioning: Markets spent the week bracing for January CPI data, with forecasters looking for ~0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y growth — enough to keep interest rates steady unless something breaks.
ETF flows were choppy: Outflows in the early week (e.g., ~-$606M Feb 4, ~-$283M Feb 5) flipped to inflows mid-week (e.g., ~+$266M Feb 10) before turning negative again (~-$214M Feb 11) — classic “macro week” behavior.
Industry stress showed in ops: Gemini announced plans to cut up to 200 jobs and reduce its presence outside the U.S. and Singapore.
Liquidation aftershocks linger: Volatility early in February triggered billions in BTC liquidations, and the “deleveraging” theme stayed front-and-center.
Global impact on crypto:
Central bank independence combined with political pressure made for a market variable, not just headlines.
Risk capital rotated globally (EU/Asia inflows vs U.S. outflows) as tech volatility weighed on sentiment.
Stablecoins gained strategic importance in the U.S. policy conversation (and banks are paying attention).
This Week’s Market Runup Episode
In the pilot episode of The Market Runup, Erin sat down with Aave Labs’ founder and CEO Stani Kulechov to discuss where crypto is headed as markets trade risk, not narratives. Against the current backdrop of tightening liquidity and global uncertainty, Stani explained Aave’s evolution into a leading onchain lending protocol, then zoomed out to what’s next: real-world assets, institutional participation, and consumer products like the Aave App. We also discussed why protocols built around strong risk management and real yield may become the most durable infrastructure in a stress-tested market.
Noteworthy Market Stats
Total crypto market cap: ~$2.36T (24h change -1.7%)
Top 3 Assets:
1 Bitcoin (BTC): $1.37T at ~$66.8K
2 Ethereum (ETH): $247.53B at ~$1.95K
3 Tether (USDT): $183.74B
Bitcoin dominance vs altcoins: ~56–57%
Stablecoin market cap: $310B
Bitcoin ETF net flows: Whipsaw week down $404M (big outflows early, inflows mid-week, then mixed)
What Else Caught Our Eye
Top Market Analysis
Statement: Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro risk asset than a standalone crypto trade.
The Market Runup’s Take: When the market is pricing Fed independence headlines, jobs data, and CPI expectations in real time, BTC trades like a high-beta expression of liquidity and risk appetite. That’s why ETF flows, dollar strength, and equity volatility are setting the tempo more than “crypto narratives” this week.
Spot vs Derivatives Flows (what to watch): In the current macro-driven environment, shifts in funding rates and open interest are more important than usual, as rapid deleveraging in derivatives markets can cascade quickly following major macro headlines and accelerate downside volatility.
Cross-asset correlations (what it tells you): Bitcoin remains closely correlated with technology equities during risk-off periods, indicating that macro sentiment and broader liquidity conditions are still key drivers of crypto price action.
What’s The Risk Appetite?
Overall risk appetite appears fragile, with investors leaning defensive as macro uncertainty, policy headlines, and liquidity repricing continue to dominate market positioning.
Highlights this week
Liquidity stress points remain elevated as risk-off capital flows and political headlines surrounding the Federal Reserve contribute to heightened volatility across markets.
ETF flow reversals are another critical factor to monitor, as sharp day-to-day inflow and outflow swings can amplify price movements and distort short-term sentiment.
Macro calendar sensitivity is high, with CPI data and subsequent Federal Reserve commentary likely to quickly reset interest rate expectations and influence cross-market positioning.
Industry shakeouts, including layoffs and project exits, may further tighten overall sentiment and reduce marginal liquidity, creating a more fragile market structure.
Learn More
We liked what they wrote, so we thought you would, too.
Bundesbank warns loss of Fed independence could lift global inflation (Reuters)
GOP senator says he’s open to compromise on Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve (AP)
US job growth surges in January, but labor market far from turning around (Reuters)
Crypto’s battle with the banks is splitting Trump’s base (FT)
Gemini to Exit UK, EU, Aus Market, Shifts Accounts to Withdrawal-Only From March 5 (Yahoo)
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This information is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and you should consult a financial professional before making any financial decisions. Make sure you do your own research.